Hollywood’s Safe Bets Are Diluting Cinema

The Industry Must Take Risks Again to Thrive

"The things you get fired for when you’re young are the same things you get lifetime achievement awards for when you’re old." — Francis Ford Coppola

Hollywood wasn’t built on safe bets.

For over a century, it thrived on risk—the bold, unpredictable, and sometimes reckless kind of risk that made people sit up, pay attention, and remember why they loved movies in the first place. The best films weren’t created in boardrooms or tested by algorithms. They were made by people who had a story to tell and were willing to take a gamble to tell it.

But somewhere along the way, that changed.

Studios started playing it safer and safer. Not because they stopped caring about movies, but because they started caring about the numbers more. It became about box office projections, franchise expansions, and making sure everything had a built-in audience. And sure, that works—for a while. Until it doesn’t.

The Independent Spirit That Built Hollywood

Hollywood used to be the place where filmmakers took big swings. Where a young Steven Spielberg turned a mechanical shark malfunction into a masterclass in suspense (Jaws). Where Ridley Scott created something fresh by blending horror and sci-fi (Alien). Where Francis Ford Coppola nearly lost everything just to make Apocalypse Now, a film that would go on to be one of the greatest ever made.

That’s the spirit that made Hollywood what it is. But lately? That spirit feels more like a memory.

• We see the same actors in every big movie because they’re “bankable.”

• The same franchises keep getting recycled because they’re a “sure thing.”

• The same formulas get reused because they’ve been proven to work.

• The result? A film industry that feels… smaller. Less surprising. Less alive.

"The only safe thing is to take a chance." — Mike Nichols

Hollywood’s Obsession with Playing It Safe

The thing about risk is that it doesn’t always pay off. Sometimes it flops. Sometimes it confuses audiences. Sometimes it just doesn’t work. But the best filmmakers—the ones who’ve shaped cinema—knew that was the price of making something great.

Now, though, the industry treats failure like it’s the end of the world. No one wants to take a chance unless they know the odds are stacked in their favor. And because of that, movies are starting to feel predictable.

When was the last time a big studio film genuinely surprised you? Not just entertained you, but made you sit back and think, Wow, I’ve never seen that before.

The irony? Some of the biggest hits in recent years weren’t safe bets at all.

• Get Out (2017) — A $4.5 million indie horror film that completely changed the genre.

• Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022) — A weird, wild, totally original movie that swept the Oscars.

• Mad Max: Fury Road (2015) — A film that went against every studio instinct and became a masterpiece.

None of these were "sure things." But they proved one thing: Audiences do want new stories. They just aren’t getting them as often as they should.

"You have to find something that you love enough to be able to take risks." — George Lucas

Hollywood’s Future: Risk vs Reward

Look, no one’s saying studios should stop making big-budget movies. There’s always going to be a place for blockbusters, sequels, and franchise films. But it can’t be only that. There has to be room for the unknown, the untested, the risky.

That means:

• Backing more original screenplays instead of just rebooting old ones.

• Giving fresh voices a shot instead of relying on the same directors every time.

• Trusting audiences to embrace new narratives.

• Letting some movies fail—because that’s how groundbreaking ones get made.

"We're so used to seeing movies that are like other movies because they're financed that way. It's always something that's already proven that it will make money. It's like a potato chip that you know is habit-forming and 'Megalopolis' is new." — Francis Ford Coppola

Coppola put his own money on the line—$120 million of it—to make Megalopolis, a film that goes against every current studio trend. Whether it succeeds or not, one thing is clear: He still believes in cinema as an art form, not just a business. And honestly? That’s the kind of risk Hollywood needs more of.

Does Hollywood continue down the road of endless reboots, remakes, and safe bets? Or does it start taking risks again, trusting filmmakers, and letting creativity lead the way?

I don’t have the answer. But I do know this—movies were never meant to be predictable. And the moment they become too safe, they stop being movies. They become content.

And that’s not what made us fall in love with cinema in the first place.